StatChat - NASCAR Cup Series @ Pocono

After this weekend’s doubleheader at Pocono, we will only be 7 races away from the start of the playoffs.  3 of those will be road courses (Road America, Watkins Glen and Indianapolis), and none of the 7 tracks will return in the playoffs.  While it’s obvious that for those drivers who have yet to score a win this season, every race will be about securing that playoff spot.  But for the drivers who have already won, there may be a chance for us to see some slightly more unorthodox strategy calls.

 

Will those drivers compete extra hard for stage wins, wanting to pad their playoff points?  Will they take a chance on a slightly different setup, something that could give them an edge come playoff time – but the stakes aren’t as high if it fails miserably?  Kyle Larson seems content to just keep on winning, as there doesn’t seem to be much experimentation necessary for the 5 team.  However, what about a driver like Martin Truex Jr.? With 3 wins under his belt, he can coast comfortably for the rest of the regular season.  But with recent performances having fallen off a bit, what sort of experimentation can he and crew chief James Small do over these next races to find that competitive advantage?

 

This weekend will feature 2 Cup Series races, both at Pocono Raceway.  Pocono is a unique track on the NASCAR schedule in many ways.  It is a triangular-shaped speedway, with each of its three turns being completely different from each other.  The track is 2.5 miles long, and features a fairly low amount of banking in the corners. 

 

The races this weekend will be called the “Pocono Organics CBD 325” on Saturday, and the “Explore the Pocono Mountains 350” on Sunday.  Saturday’s race will be 130 laps (325 miles), with stage breaks occurring at 25 – 77 – 130, and a competition caution at lap 12.  Sunday’s race is ten laps longer (350 miles), with stage breaks at 30 – 85 – 140.  The fuel window is approximately 40-44 laps.

 

NASCAR has run 6,189.59 miles so far this year.  Austin Dillon has completed 99.89% of them, the most of any driver.

 

Top 5 Career Average Finishers at Pocono:

William Byron	9.67 over 6 races
Brad Keselowski	10.95 over 22 races
Denny Hamlin	11.27 over 30 races
Erik Jones	11.38 over 8 races
Kevin Harvick	12.05 over 40 races

 

Bottom 5 Career Average Finishers at Pocono:

BJ McLeod	37.25 over 4 races
Josh Bilicki	33.67 over 3 races
Timmy Hill	33.43 over 7 races
Quin Houff	32.75 over 4 races
Tyler Reddick	32.50 over 2 races

 

While Pocono doesn’t quite match any other track, we have lumped it in with intermediate courses, as it doesn’t have the same style of drafting as a Super Speedway.

 

Top 5 Career Average Finishers at Intermediate Tracks:

Kevin Harvick	11.21 over 365 races
Kyle Larson	12.46 over 119 races
Kyle Busch	12.50 over 296 races
Joey Logano	13.27 over 226 races
Brad Keselowski	13.41 over 217 races

 

Jeff Gordon and Denny Hamlin are tied for winningest driver at Pocono, each with 6 wins.  Bill Elliott has 5 wins, then Darrell Waltrip, Rusty Wallace and Tim Richmond each have 4. 

 

Notable drivers who have not won at Pocono:

Chase Elliott	(has won at 10 other tracks)
Kyle Larson	(has won at 8 other tracks)
Alex Bowman	(has won at 4 other tracks)

 

Pocono seems to be the track where drivers score their first career Cup Series win.  Denny Hamlin did it in his 21^ststart, Chris Buescher in his 27^th, and Ryan Blaney in his 68^th.

 

No drivers list Pocono as their BEST track, however Tyler Reddick, Cody Ware and BJ McLeod list it as their WORST track.

 

Milestone Watch!

Alex Bowman	Currently has 49 Career Top 10s
Chris Buescher	Currently has 24 Career Top 10s

 

 

Based on their point pace, let’s have a look at who’s having a better year than last year.

 

Drivers Faring Better than in 2020

William Byron	+375 pts
Daniel Suarez	+351 pts
Michael McDowell	+204 pts
Chris Buescher	+164 pts
Denny Hamlin	+149 pts

 

Drivers Faring Worse than in 2020

Aric Almirola	-491 pts
Kevin Harvick	-317 pts
Erik Jones	-253 pts
Kurt Busch	-214 pts
Brad Keselowski	-199 pts

 

While some drivers may be doing better this year than they did in 2020, how does this year stack up against their entire career?  This statistic does not include rookies, as this is their first full year in the Cup Series.

 

Drivers Having their BEST Career Year

Denny Hamlin	8.47
William Byron	10.18
Kyle Larson	10.24
Austin Dillon	12.94
Chris Buescher	16.47
Bubba Wallace	21.06
Ryan Preece	21.65
Corey LaJoie	25.53

 

Drivers Having their WORST Career Year

Aric Almirola	24.06
Erik Jones	20.35

 

In 2017, NASCAR introduced the concept of Stage Racing, which pauses the race at certain intervals and awards bonus points for the top 10 at that moment.  Here are the Top-5 Stage Point earners so far this year:

 

Stage Point Leaders:

Denny Hamlin	201 pts
Kyle Larson	187 pts
Chase Elliott	148 pts
William Byron	128 pts
Kyle Busch	124 pts

 

For those that aren’t aware, the Manufacturer Standings are calculated by awarding points to the highest finisher for each manufacturer according to their finishing position.  (40 for 1^st, 35 for 2^nd, 34 for 3^rd, etc.)  No stage points or playoff points count.

 

Manufacturer Standings

Chevrolet	627
Ford	589
Toyota	577

 

Here is the same formula, but used on a team-vs-team basis:

 

Chartered Team Standings

Hendrick	617
Joe Gibbs	575
Penske	551
Stewart-Haas	493
Richard Childress	446
Chip Ganassi	410
Roush-Fenway	401
JTG-Daugherty	394
Front Row	356
Wood Brothers	318
Trackhouse	313
Richard Petty	286
23XI	274
Spire	241
Rick Ware	150
Live Fast	113
StarCom	79

 

 

 

The races are Saturday, June 26^that 3:00pm EST (12:00pm PST), and Sunday, June 27^th, at 3:30pm EST (12:30pm PST)– Enjoy the races everyone!

 

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