StatChat - NASCAR Cup Series @ Phoenix
We are four races into the season, and so far we have four different winners. Will this be the race that crowns our first repeat winner of the season? We may only be 1/9th of the way through the season, but there are some trends that are starting to form that may help paint a picture of how the rest of the season may go. This weekend, the Cup Series makes a trip to Phoenix Raceway for the Instacart 500, and also perhaps for a sneak peek at who can bring the speed to this track and challenge for a championship at the end of the year. Let’s get the StatChat started:
Phoenix Raceway, while also the site of the Championship Race in November, is the Cup Series’ first visit to a short track in 2021. It is a 1.022-mile (though NASCAR scores it just as one mile) oval with a distinctive dogleg just past the start/finish line. The NASCAR Cup Series has been racing at Phoenix since 1988, but has undergone a few reconfigurations in the time since.
The race will be 312 laps (for a total of 312 miles), with stage breaks occurring at 75 – 190 – 312, and a competition caution at lap 30. The fuel window is approximately 90-95 laps.
NASCAR has run 1,553.70 miles so far this year, with only Kyle Larson, Chase Elliott and Denny Hamlin having run all of them.
Top 5 Career Average Finishers at Phoenix:
| Kevin Harvick | 8.92 over 36 races |
| Kyle Busch | 10.52 over 31 races |
| Denny Hamlin | 11.03 over 31 races |
| Chase Elliott | 11.80 over 10 races |
| Kyle Larson | 12.00 over 13 races |
Bottom 5 Career Average Finishers at Phoenix:
| Quin Houff | 34.33 over 3 races |
| Corey LaJoie | 33.14 over 7 races |
| Michael McDowell | 31.75 over 20 races |
| Ryan Preece | 29.80 over 5 races |
| Tyler Reddick | 26.00 over 2 races |
Phoenix is a Short Track
Top 5 Career Average Finishers at Short Tracks:
| Kyle Busch | 11.61 over 152 races |
| Denny Hamlin | 11.85 over 146 races |
| Brad Keselowski | 12.56 over 109 races |
| Chase Elliott | 12.96 over 48 races |
| Kevin Harvick | 13.23 over 198 races |
Kevin Harvick is by far the winningest driver at Phoenix, with 9 wins to his credit. Jimmie Johnson is a distant second with 4 wins, with Dale Jr. and Kyle Busch each having 3.
Notable drivers who have not won at Phoenix:
| Brad Keselowski | (has won at 17 other tracks) |
| Martin Truex Jr. | (has won at 14 other tracks) |
No current driver has Phoenix listed as their BEST track, and no current driver has it listed as their WORST track.
No drivers have ever scored their first Cup Series win at Phoenix – will that change this weekend?
Based on their point pace, let’s have a look at who’s having a better year than last year.
Drivers Faring Better than in 2020
| Michael McDowell | +528 pts |
| Christopher Bell | +475 pts |
| Denny Hamlin | +379 pts |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | +201 pts |
| William Byron | +138 pts |
Drivers Faring Worse than in 2020
| Aric Almirola | -701 pts |
| Matt DiBenedetto | -569 pts |
| Ryan Blaney | -417 pts |
| Erik Jones | -318 pts |
| Alex Bowman | -280 pts |
While some drivers may be doing better this year than they did in 2020, how does this year stack up against their entire career? This statistic does not include rookies, as this is their first full year in the Cup Series.
Drivers Having their BEST Career Year
| Denny Hamlin | 5.75 |
| Michael McDowell | 8.00 |
| Brad Keselowski | 9.00 |
| Kyle Larson | 11.25 |
| Ryan Preece | 12.75 |
| Austin Dillon | 15.25 |
Drivers Having their WORST Career Year
| Quin Houff | 34.25 |
| Tyler Reddick | 22.25 |
In 2017, NASCAR introduced the concept of Stage Racing, which pauses the race at certain intervals and awards bonus points for the top 10 at that moment. Here are the Top-5 Stage Point earners so far this year:
Stage Point Leaders:
| Denny Hamlin | 62 pts |
| Brad Keselowski | 37 pts |
| Chase Elliott | 35 pts |
| Joey Logano | 31 pts |
| Martin Truex Jr. | 29 pts |
For those that aren’t aware, the Manufacturer Standings are calculated by awarding points to the highest finisher for each manufacturer according to their finishing position. (40 for 1st, 35 for 2nd, 34 for 3rd, etc.) No stage points or playoff points count.
Manufacturer Standings
| Chevrolet | 148 |
| Ford | 142 |
| Toyota | 140 |
Here is the same formula, but used on a team-vs-team basis:
Chartered Team Standings
| Hendrick | 142 |
| Joe Gibbs | 140 |
| Front Row | 120 |
| Penske | 116 |
| Stewart-Haas | 113 |
| Chip Ganassi | 110 |
| JTG-Daugherty | 109 |
| Richard Childress | 97 |
| Roush-Fenway | 85 |
| Richard Petty | 61 |
| Spire | 61 |
| 23XI | 55 |
| Trackhouse | 55 |
| Rick Ware | 43 |
| Wood Brothers | 35 |
| Live Fast | 33 |
| StarCom | 15 |
The race begins Sunday, March 14that 3:30 pm EST (12:30 pm PST) – Enjoy the race everyone!
Don’t forget to follow us on Twitter @StatChat_RR
Is there an error? Is there a stat missing that you’d like to see? Let us know!
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