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Each week, we’re going to take a look at how the most recent race winner is doing in a collection of stat categories, and how they stack up against the field.    Quaker State 400 – Atlanta 2 Congratulations to the Winner Kurt Busch   2021 STATS STANDINGS Alex Bowman Kurt Busch Christopher Bell 609 Points 530 Points 492 Points 9 th 10 th 11 th   AVERAGE POINTS Austin Dillon Kurt Busch Christopher Bell 26.51 Avg Points 25.14 Avg Points 23.00 Avg Points 13 th 14 th 15 th   AVERAGE FINISH Christopher Bell Kurt Busch Michael McDowell 16.81 Avg Finish 17.38 Avg Finish 17.90 Avg Finish 15 th 16 th 17 th   LAPS LED Kyle Busch Kurt Busch Chase Elliott 223 Laps Led 170 Laps Led 166 Laps Led ...

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Eleven drivers have been locked into the playoffs since May 23 rd , when Chase Elliott won at COTA.  With five spots remaining, let’s take a look at some of the drivers who may have a chance to upset the current picture.    Chris Buescher is only 25 points out of the playoffs at the moment, so a playoff berth for him wouldn’t really count as an upset.  However, Ross Chastain is 69 points out and has recently been putting together some solid finishes – he could be one to watch.    Matt DiBenedetto is hanging around with a 74-point deficit, but seems unable to take that final step and win a race.  Unfortunately, that might be his only path to the playoffs, as his team has been wildly inconsistent through the entire year.   Bubba Wallace likely came into the season with expectations set too high, and therefore has been seen as a disappointment.  He’s only 5 points behind Matt DiBenedetto, but a win seems very unlikely for the 23XI dr...

Welcome to our NASCAR Cup Series Projections page.  The Playoff Forecast is where you will find the probability of each 2021 charter making the playoffs, their chances of advancing to future rounds, and also their odds of winning the Championship.    Projections are calculated by simulating the 2021 Cup Series schedule 50,000 times, using a top-secret predictive formula that is based on 3 important factors: Driver History @ Each Track, Driver Recent Overall History, and Team Performance.   This page will be updated every week, incorporating each week’s real results to (ideally) make the formula more accurate.  Keep checking back to see how your favorite driver’s odds change from week to week!   *note – As 2021 is this project’s first season, some of the underlying formulas and data were tweaked after race 10 in order to better reflect the parity in the NASCAR Cup Series.   Forecast – After Race 20     Projected Winner of...